Now that it is officially spring it’s time to start thinking ahead to the general weather conditions as we transition toward summer. The long range forecasting branch of the National Weather Service (Climate Prediction Center) has released it’s spring outlook for temperatures, precipitation and flood potential. Enjoy!
NOAA forecasters predict widespread flooding this spring, but do not expect it to be as severe or prolonged overall as the historic floods in 2019. Major to moderate flooding is likely in 23 states from the Northern Plains south to the Gulf Coast, with the most significant flood potential in parts of North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota.
NOAA Climate Predictions Center is forecasting above-average temperatures across the country this spring, as well as above-average precipitation in the central and eastern United States. Significant rainfall events could trigger flood conditions on top of already saturated soils.
With soil moisture already at high levels across much of the central U.S., and many rivers running high in the central and eastern U.S., any heavy local rainfall could trigger flooding in these high-risk areas. The flood risk outlook is based on an integrated evaluation of a number of factors, including current conditions of snowpack, drought, soil moisture, frost depth, streamflow and precipitation.
Above-average precipitation is favored from the Northern Plains, southward through the lower Mississippi Valley across to the East Coast. Large parts of Alaska are also likely to experience above-average precipitation in the months ahead.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are most likely from coast to coast with the greatest chances in northern Alaska, across the central Great Basin southward into the Gulf States, and into the Southeast and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. No part of the country is favored to experience below-average temperatures this spring.
Drought conditions are expected to persist and expand throughout California in the months ahead, and drought is likely to persist in the central and southern Rocky Mountains, the southern Plains, southern Texas, and portions of the Pacific Northwest.